STOCKS • GOLD • SILVER –  Is This the Investment Window We Should Not Ignore?

By CA Anil K. Jain ,Chartered Accountant | Macro – Economist | Policy Researcher |
Author     
President – Ahimsa Foundation India

India today stands at an exceptionally important point in its economic journey. Despite geopolitical conflicts, volatile commodity prices, changing global trade relationships and uncertainty across international financial markets, the fundamental strength of the Indian economy remains formidable. This is not merely an expression of optimism. The numbers provide substantial support for confidence in India’s long-term economic trajectory.

The International Monetary
Fund continues to describe India as a key driver of global growth and the world’s fastest-growing major economy. Its July 2026 update projected Indian economic growth of approximately 6.4% in FY2026-27, supported by strong private consumption and services activity. This compares with projected global growth of only about 3.0% in 2026. India therefore enters the present period of global uncertainty from a position of considerable underlying economic strength.

THE STRUCTURAL STRENGTH OF INDIA CANNOT BE IGNORED

India’s greatest economic advantage is that its growth story is not dependent upon a single sector or a single source of demand. It is supported by a vast domestic consumer market, increasing formalisation of the economy, expanding digital infrastructure, manufacturing and infrastructure investment, a large services economy and rapidly deepening financial markets.The transformation of India’s tax base provides one striking example. The number of registered GST taxpayers increased from approximately 66.5 lakh in 2017 to 1.65 crore by May 2026. Gross GST collections increased from around ₹7.4 lakh crore in 2017-18 to approximately
₹22.27 lakh crore in 2025-26.

These figures demonstrate a fundamental structural change: more economic activity is entering the organised and formal financial system. Fiscal management has also continued alongside the growth agenda. The Union Budget projects the Central Government fiscal deficit at 4.3% of GDP in FY2026-27, compared with 4.4% in the revised estimate for FY2025-26, while Central Government debt is budgeted to decline from 56.1% to 55.6% of GDP. This combination—high economic growth, a widening formal economy, infrastructure creation, expanding financial participation and fiscal consolidation—creates a powerful foundation for India’s next phase of development.

INDIAN
CAPITAL MARKET – A NATIONAL WEALTH-CREATION PLATFORM

The extraordinary expansion of India’s capital markets deserves particular attention. As of 25 September 2026,
NSE-listed companies had an aggregate market capitalisation of approximately ₹477 lakh crore (about US$4.97 trillion), while registered client accounts had crossed 27 crore. The deeper transformation is the participation of ordinary
Indian households.NSE reported that over the five years ending February 2026, the Nifty 50 generated an annualised return of approximately 11.3%, while the broader Nifty 500 generated approximately 13.7%. Average monthly SIP inflows between April 2025 and January 2026 increased to about ₹28,766 crore, compared with ₹23,743 crore a year earlier.

Past performance, of course, does not guarantee future returns. Nevertheless, the scale and broadening of domestic participation represent a structural development in Indian finance. For investors who possess adequate risk capacity and can tolerate volatility, the present environment therefore deserves serious consideration from a long-term perspective of at least 12 months and preferably considerably longer. Temporary corrections should not automatically be confused with deterioration in India’s fundamental economic story. Periods of international uncertainty can create valuation opportunities in fundamentally strong businesses. The focus should consequently be on quality: financially strong companies, sustainable businesses, reasonable valuations and sectors positioned to benefit from India’s long-term expansion rather than speculative short-term trading.

GOLD AND SILVER DESERVE A STRATEGIC PLACE

The investment case should not be restricted to equities. In an environment characterised by geopolitical tension, currency volatility, international conflicts and changing monetary conditions, gold and silver can provide diversification alongside financial assets. Gold has already demonstrated extraordinary investor interest in India.
According to the World Gold Council, Indian gold investment demand reached 113 tonnes during the first half of 2026—the strongest first half since 2013.
Indian gold ETF demand reached a record 24 tonnes during H1 2026. Gold should therefore be viewed not simply as jewellery or a speculative commodity, but potentially as a strategic portfolio diversifier during periods of financial and geopolitical instability.

Silver presents a different but equally interesting proposition because it combines characteristics of a precious metal with substantial industrial applications. The Silver Institute expects the global silver market to remain in deficit for a sixth consecutive year in 2026, with a projected deficit of approximately 67 million ounces. It also points to structural demand associated with data centres, AI-related technologies and automobiles, while forecasting physical investment demand to increase approximately 20% in 2026. Silver can nevertheless be substantially more volatile than gold. Any allocation should therefore reflect an investor’s individual risk tolerance rather than an assumption of uninterrupted price appreciation.

INDIA SHOULD
NOW ACCELERATE THE NEXT GENERATION OF REFORMS

Economic strength should never become an excuse for complacency. On the contrary, this is precisely the time for India to move aggressively with the next generation of fiscal, taxation, regulatory and legislative reforms. India should continuously examine measures capable of increasing investment, reducing unnecessary compliance, encouraging household financial savings, attracting global capital and improving the international competitiveness of Indian enterprise. One proposal deserving serious policy examination is the taxation of long-term investment income.

The Government should evaluate whether carefully designed reductions, exemptions or rationalisation of taxation on long-term capital gains and dividend income could stimulate greater domestic participation in productive financial assets and make Indian capital markets still more attractive to global investors. Such reform would naturally involve fiscal trade-offs: the Government would need to evaluate the revenue foregone, distributional consequences, potential behavioural effects and whether targeted incentives would produce greater investment than broad exemptions. But the objective should be unambiguous—India’s tax architecture should reward genuine long-term capital formation rather than create unnecessary friction for productive investment.

A predictable and internationally competitive taxation system, combined with regulatory stability, rapid dispute resolution and simplified investment procedures, could significantly strengthen investor confidence.

INDIA MUST
COMPETE FOR GLOBAL CAPITAL

Capital today is global, mobile and extraordinarily sensitive to taxation, regulation, policy stability and ease of doing business. India therefore cannot merely be an attractive destination. It must continuously strive to become one of the world’s most compelling destinations for long-term capital. Recent measures demonstrate movement in this direction. In September 2026, SEBI expanded access for Foreign
Portfolio Investors to India’s non-agricultural commodity derivatives market, including areas such as gold and silver—another step toward deeper and more globally integrated Indian financial markets.

The next stage should be broader and faster. India should pursue greater tax certainty, simplified regulations, faster approvals, stable investment rules, deeper bond and commodity markets, stronger infrastructure, accelerated privatisation and asset monetisation where appropriate, easier capital formation for productive enterprises and policies that encourage both domestic and international institutional investment. Reform should not be defensive. Reform should be ambitious.

GLOBAL
UNCERTAINTY CAN BECOME INDIA’S OPPORTUNITY

The international environment remains uncertain. The IMF has specifically identified risks associated with geopolitical conflict and financial-market repricing. But precisely because the world is uncertain, countries possessing large domestic markets, diversified economic activity, expanding infrastructure and credible growth prospects have an opportunity to distinguish themselves. India has the potential to convert international uncertainty into strategic economic opportunity. Global manufacturers are reconsidering supply chains. International investors are seeking growth.
Multinational businesses want access to large consumer markets. Global capital requires credible long-term destinations.

India possesses many of these advantages simultaneously. The appropriate response is therefore not hesitation but confidence combined with discipline. For investors, that means looking beyond daily market fluctuations and concentrating on India’s multi-year structural trajectory. A diversified strategy involving quality Indian equities together with measured exposure to gold and silver may offer an attractive framework for investors with suitable risk tolerance and a sufficiently long horizon.

POLICYMAKERS – MESSAGE IS CLEAR:
ACCELERATE REFORMS

Create stronger incentives for investment. Rationalise taxation. Encourage long-term savings. Increase policy predictability. Deepen India’s financial markets. Attract global institutional capital. Reduce avoidable regulatory friction. Accelerate infrastructure and manufacturing development.

INDIA ALREADY POSSESSES THE ECONOMIC FOUNDATION.

What is required now is the determination to convert that foundation into the next great phase of investment, enterprise, employment and national wealth creation. The coming years can be transformative for India—but extraordinary outcomes will require extraordinary policy execution, patient capital and the confidence to invest for the long term. A minimum 12-month horizon can reduce the temptation to react to short-term volatility. However, equities and precious metals can still fall substantially over that period and no return can be assured. Investors should therefore diversify, avoid excessive leverage and align allocations with their own liquidity needs and risk tolerance.

India’s opportunity is enormous. The moment calls for investment, reform, confidence and decisive economic action.

R29092026